Field Guide
Scenarios
Real-world decision physics in plain language. Use these as fast translations of Return, Pressure, and Stability before you act.
Urgency is high and confidence is thin. The clock is louder than your evidence.
What it feels like
You’re late to something that matters — shipping a patch, making a call before close, deciding under scrutiny.
What the numbers usually look like
Urgency spikes, confidence lags, pressure climbs even if return looks good.
Next move
- Buy time by trimming scope or unlocking a quick evidence hit.
- Name the risk you’re accepting so the team isn’t guessing.
Confidence outweighs risk. The move is survivable even if pressure exists.
What it feels like
You can execute without fear; the risk feels priced-in to you even if others hesitate.
What the numbers usually look like
Confidence sits above risk; stability is positive so pressure feels manageable.
Next move
- Advance decisively while the footing is strong.
- Use the stability to teach the team what ‘safe enough’ looks like.
Solid stability makes pressure survivable. It might still be ugly, but it holds.
What it feels like
You’re under the gun, but you trust the plan and the evidence backing it.
What the numbers usually look like
Stability positive, pressure elevated. Urgency is high but confidence keeps it from cracking.
Next move
- Protect the stability sources (evidence, people, cash) while you burn down pressure.
- Sequence steps so you never give up stability just to sprint.
The energy is high but the math is off; you’re burning quietly in the background.
What it feels like
Work is frantic yet something feels net-negative — a slow leak in a deal or a team.
What the numbers usually look like
Return negative or neutral while urgency stays elevated. Stability might be masking the burn.
Next move
- Find the leak: trim cost, reframe scope, or raise impact before momentum locks in losses.
- If the leak won’t close, exit cleanly instead of dragging it out.
Low pressure doesn’t mean good. It can be comfortable drift.
What it feels like
No one is panicked, but nothing is improving — maybe coasting on autopilot.
What the numbers usually look like
Pressure low because urgency is muted, but return is flat and stability may be soft.
Next move
- Create honest urgency or define the impact target so drift stops.
- Shake the system with a small, fast decision to surface real signals.
Confidence may be narrative-heavy while risk is underpriced.
What it feels like
You ‘know’ this will work and are ready to push, but the downside could bite hard.
What the numbers usually look like
Confidence and risk both high; stability hovers near zero or negative.
Next move
- Stress-test the risk assumptions and add one disconfirming piece of evidence.
- Design a reversible first move before committing the full plan.
Confidence is rising faster than results justify. Mispricing hides here.
What it feels like
The room believes the story more than the scoreboard.
What the numbers usually look like
Confidence high and climbing while Return is flat/negative; Stability may be neutral.
Next move
- Demand one disconfirming datapoint before scaling.
- Convert belief into proof: run a small test that can fail loudly.
Pressure is compressing Stability. Things look fine… until they don’t.
What it feels like
Everyone is sprinting; no one feels safe to slow down.
What the numbers usually look like
Pressure elevated (Urgency > Confidence) while Stability is low/negative (Risk ≈ or > Confidence).
Next move
- Buy time: cut scope or sequence the plan into survivable steps.
- Protect Stability sources (cash, people, evidence) before pushing speed.
High Impact with low Cost keeps showing up. This is hidden upside.
What it feels like
“Why didn’t we do this sooner?” energy.
What the numbers usually look like
Impact high, Cost low → Return strongly positive; Pressure may be manageable.
Next move
- Move now: allocate ownership and ship the smallest version this week.
- Create a repeatable playbook so it doesn’t die in debate.
Urgency is spiking without real risk. This is distortion, not reality.
What it feels like
The timeline feels emotional or political—not externally forced.
What the numbers usually look like
Urgency high, Risk low; Pressure rises because Confidence doesn’t match the speed.
Next move
- Name the real driver (fear, optics, politics) and reset the clock if possible.
- If you can’t slow down, raise Confidence fast: get one concrete evidence hit.
Early warning / early opportunity signals.
- Confidence ↑ faster than Return → Narrative inflation. Leaders believe more than results justify. This is where reputational risk and mispricing hide.
- Pressure compresses Stability → Fragile execution regimes. Things look fine… until they don’t. Classic blow-up zone.
- High Impact + Low Cost persists → Underexploited leverage. This is where boards ask “why didn’t we do this sooner?”
- Urgency spikes without Risk → Political or emotional distortion. Decisions are being rushed without external necessity.
Compare modes tell you how you performed. These tell you where to look next. That distinction matters.
Ready to translate your own situation?